Fresh Economic, Retail & Consumer Insights for Shopper Understanding
Edited and Produced by BIGresearch…Providing unique 
Insights from the Consumer Intentions & Actions study of consumers each month.

November 2004 
(Respondents Surveyed 11/3 - 11/10/04)

SPECIAL EDITION: VIDEO BRIEFING




This newsletter is an expanded version of the one sent on 11/12/04.  This special "video" edition includes a video briefing which recaps the key consumer insights for the month of November.

We invite you to check it out by clicking on the flashing arrow inside the TV.  You currently receive the text-only version of our Briefing each month.  If you would also like to receive the video version, please click  SUBSCRIBE for a free issue each month.

This newsletter summarizes the pulse of the consumers based on BIGresearch’s monthly national Consumer Intentions and Actions (CIA) Survey every month. The CIA survey findings are available by shoppers of most major retailers and can be licensed and delivered on a CD ROM.  For more information on the CIA, click here.

 
Click on the flashing arrow above to play video.

In this Issue :

  • Post-election consumers worry less about political and national security issues
  • Consumer confidence rises slightly in November
  • Practical consumers are baaack!
  • Layoff predictions a mixed bag this month
  • One in five say they’re “lovin’ it”…McDonald’s still king of fast food
  • Insight special: Take a look at the Consumer Equity Index for Women’s Clothing
  • Price is the #1 reason consumers shop a particular Children’s Clothing store
  • Women breathe a collective sigh of relief as 6 month purchase intentions up for jewelry/watch category
  • Have you missed the talk at the water cooler? Desperate Housewives is HOT!

     ECONOMY


    While the 2004 Election wasn’t the political cliffhanger it was in 2000    , it looks like the clear victory and a definitive course of action have helped ease uncertainty about where this country is headed for consumers (whether they approve of the outcome or not).  After peaking for the year in the months leading up to the election, worry about political and national security issues has lowered 1½ points in November to 24.6% (compared to 27.5% in September and 26.0% in October.)  BIG bragging rights: our Presidential Poll of over 8,000 consumers predicted the Bush victory…check it out: 2004 Presidential Election

    Post-election consumer confidence in the economy increases…while consumer confidence continues to hover in the mid-40% range, those who say they are very confident/confident in the chances for a strong economy in the next 6 months rose slightly in November to 45.4% (v. 44.2% in October).  And the good news for retailers with profitable holiday seasons on their wish lists?  This is also a slight increase from November 2003 (44.2%) and a very positive 17 points above November 2002 (28.0%).

    We knew they wouldn’t be gone for long…practical consumers are baaack!  Those who say they’ve become more practical in the last 6 months up to 41.4% (v. 39.2% in October), but still several points lower than November 2003’s 45.9%, so consumers may be more willing to let loose and spend this year.

    More evidence that this holiday season may be brighter than last…those concerned with needs over wants also up slightly from October to 49.2% (v. 48.0% last month), but still lower than November 2003, when the majority (55.6%) were putting necessities at the top of their shopping list.

     PERSONAL/FINANCIAL


    Layoff predictions over the next 6 months prove to be a mixed bag in November    …slightly more consumers anticipate “more” layoffs in the next 6 months (32.5% say so in November v. 31.0% last month), fewer say “same” (44.6% v. 52.0%), while those saying “fewer” increases 6 points to 22.9% v. 17.0% in October (and tied with December 2003 for the most positive “fewer” reading to date).  Slight uptick in those concerned with becoming laid off (5.4% v. 5.1% in October).

    What’s the six-letter word that has retailers seeing dollar signs this month? CREDIT.  Those planning to pay with cash more often down slightly from last month at 24.3%, the lowest reading to date and a full 4½ points down from November 2003.  However, practical consumers make paying down debt the #1 financial plan (40.7% say so) up slightly from October’s 37.8%.  Decrease overall spending #2, but down month-over-month and year-over-year…Increase savings (#3) flat with October (and down from ’03).  Check out the chart below for an overview: 


    Investors have mixed feelings about the stock market in November…while confidence in the stock market up slightly in November, 61.3% are very confident/confident v. 60.5% last month, investors planning to buy stocks down a point to 13.5% (v. 14.4% in October) and those planning to sell up to 8.0% (v. 6.7% in October).
     

    With major sequels (Ocean’s 12, Bridget Jones 2, Meet the Fockers) and big-budgets (Alexander, The Polar Express) hitting theaters this holiday season, box offices are looking to boost flat ticket sales.  So how did entertainment deferrals fare this month?  Consumers were just slightly more likely to defer in October, with 28.2% saying so.  However, compared to November 2003’s 37.0%, it looks like movie houses may enjoy a jollier Holiday 2004.  Another bright spot…in October, consumers were less likely to defer purchases in two major gift categories: apparel and electronics…also less likely to put off dining out.  Vacation travel, autos, and home improvement projects flat.

    One in five still say they’re “lovin’ it”…that’s right, with the addition of premium options to their menu and white-hot girl group Destiny’s Child to push their burgers, McDonald’s remains king of the fast food industry, with 21.4% saying they eat there most often.  However, when “Mr. Wendy” gets his pink slip at the end of the month, Wendy’s will be looking to heat up the competition with a renewed focus on quality and heritage…for now, with 11.3% share in November, Wendy’s still trumps Burger King (9.5%), Taco Bell (5.8%), and Subway (5.1%).


     RETAIL


    It looks like older women are more likely to find their size when at the store they shop at most often for apparel    .  Two in five (41.0%) women 55 and over can “very often” find their size…that figure drops a bit for younger sets: almost one in three (32.1%) women 35-54 and 30.7% of women 18-34 say the same.  Comparably, only 8.0% of women 55+ say they find their size “not very often” or "never," while one in ten women 18-34 (10.4%) and women 35-54 (9.7%) say the same.  When it comes to style, women 35-54 look to be the picky shoppers…14.9% of this set say they find the right style “not very often” or “never,” compared to 11.8% of women 18-34 and 13.1% of women 55+…though the majority of each group find the right style “very often” or “often.”

    Where might these women be shopping for their apparel needs?  Wal-Mart’s a likely destination….overall, one in five consumers say they shop there most often for Women’s Clothing.  (Among women, it’s 20.6% for those 18-34, 31.6% for the 35-54 year olds and 24.1% for 55+.)  JC Penney is second with 5.5% share, 3. Kohl’s (5.2%), 4. Target (2.9%), 5. Kmart (2.5%)…Sears not far behind in sixth place (2.1%), while Lane Bryant (1.6%), Dillards & Old Navy (1.5% each) and Macy’s (1.3%) round out the Top Ten.

    Hungry for more? Check out the Consumer Equity Index, our year-over-year index which shows growth or decline in a store’s share (an index of 100 is flat, while an index of 105 indicated 5% growth).  According to the CEI this month in Women's Clothing, Wal-Mart’s growth has stabilized over the past year (CEI = 99.1), while Kohl’s and Target have experienced 12% growth (CEI = 111.9 & 112.1, respectively) and perpetual dog Kmart (although currently re-vamping their women’s lines) has dropped 12% (CEI = 87.8).  Check out the chart below for a visual:


    P.S.  Think this is juicy data?  This is just the tip of the iceberg for our monthly Retail Ratings Reports, available for 10 major retail categories.

    In Men’s Clothing this month, Wal-Mart continues total domination with 23.3% share of those who say they shop there most often, followed by JC Penney (7.2%), Kohl’s (5.7%), Sears (4.3%), and Target (3.7%).

    With 25.4% shopping at discounters most often for Children’s Clothing (compared to 8.9% for department stores and 4.4% for specialties), it’s no surprise here that consumers choose price as the #1 reason to shop a particular store, with 41.8% saying so…selection (29.1%), quality (22.7%), location (22.2%), and good selection of sizes (19.3%) follow.  And the store shopped most often for Children’s Clothing?  It’s in the bag for Wal-Mart (17.6% say so), 2. Target (3.9%), 3. (tie) JC Penney & Kohl’s (2.4%), 5. Kmart (1.9%).

    Payless isn’t ready to give up on #1 yet…as the Shoe Wars rage on, the specialty retailer continues to put up a fight against Wal-Mart’s advances.  This month, they end up relatively tied…Payless had the slight edge with 17.0% share to Wal-Mart’s 16.8%.  Kmart continues at #3 (3.3%), Kohl’s (2.9%), & JC Penney (2.5%) round out the Top 5.

    Electronics is a hot category for holiday gift giving, and with more than one in four (27.4%) consumers shopping Best Buy most often, this big box retailer looks to be a hot holiday destination.  Wal-Mart second with 19.7%, Circuit City (8.2%), Sears (5.3%), and Fry’s (1.7%) complete the Top 5.

    This just in...we've got info on Holiday Shopping over Thanksgiving weekend.  According to the latest NRF/BIGresearch Black Friday Weekend Survey, the average shopper spent $265.15 over the weekend...of those who braved the stores this weekend, 64.6% shopped on Friday, 54.1% on Saturday, and 25.3% on Sunday.  49.1% of weekend shoppers purchased clothing or clothing accessories, 45.5% bought books, CDs, DVDs, videos and video games, while 31.2% purchased electronics.  FYI...as of Sunday, November 28th, the average consumer had completed 36.8% of his/her holiday shopping, while fewer than 1 in 10 (8.3%) had actually finished.

     FEATURED AISLE

    Wrap it, bag it, store it…in November we’re taking a look at Food Storage Products.      And when it comes to buying storage bags, wraps and/or containers, consumer head to, you guessed it, Wal-Mart, with 25.1% saying they shop there most often for their storage needs.  Kroger a distant second (2.9%), membership warehouse clubs Costco and Sam’s Club follow (2.5% and 2.1%, respectively)…Dollar General and Target (tied with 2.0% each) round out the Top 5.  However, more than one in five consumers (22.2%) say they have “No Preference” on where they shop for these items, which represents a prime opportunity for retailers to convert these non-committal shoppers to purchase within their stores.

    Although the Home Storage section is typically hard to shop, 92.2% of consumer report that they can find Food Storage Bags always or most of the time…91.0% say the same for Plastic Wraps, 92.3% for Aluminum Foils.  And the products consumers may have more difficulty finding?   Fewer say they can find Disposable Containers and Non-Disposable Containers always or most of the time (81.6% & 76.7%, respectively).  86.1% expect that all Food Storage products to be merchandised together in the store.

    And when consumers have trouble finding Food Storage Bags and Wraps, why is that?  8.2% say they have difficulty finding the right bag size, 7.4% say the product they want is out of stock, and 6.6% can’t find the right bag closure…12.7% say they just don’t know.

    90 DAY OUTLOOK

    Women across the country can breathe a collective sigh of relief as 6 month purchase intentions are up for the jewelry/watch category this month…Furniture, RV/boat, stereo equipment, TV, DVD/VCR, vacation travel flat, while computer, home appliances, house, major home improvement/repair, and digital camera down…so it looks like it may take some special sales/discounts to entice practical consumers into making high-dollar holiday purchases.

    Seems that this month’s practical consumers are trying to rope in spending over the next 90 days, as most categories are down in November, according to the BIGresearch Diffusion Index (those who say they’ll spend less subtracted from those who’ll spend more.)  It looks like sporting goods and CDs/DVDs/videos/books will be hot gifts this season:

    Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook
    (November 04 compared to October 04 and November 03)

    Category October 04 November 03 Category October 04 November 03
    Children's DOWN DOWN Toys and Games DOWN DOWN
    Women's Dress DOWN FLAT CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books UP DOWN

    Women's Casual

    		 DOWN DOWN Electronics DOWN DOWN
    Men's Dress DOWN DOWN Groceries FLAT DOWN
    Men's Casual DOWN DOWN Home Improvement DOWN DOWN
    Shoes DOWN DOWN Lawn & Garden DOWN DOWN
    HBA DOWN DOWN Home Furniture DOWN DOWN
    Dining Out UP UP Decorative Home Furnishings UP DOWN
    Sporting Goods UP UP Linens/Bedding/Draperies DOWN DOWN


     ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WHAT'S HOT

    It looks like practical consumers have been hitting craft stores like Michael’s and Hobby Lobby (as well as the craft section at their local Wal-Mart)    …handmade holiday gifts and scrapbooking are What’s Hot this month!  And, just in case you missed the water cooler talk, ABC’s Desperate Housewives is also making temperatures rise.  Among those 18-34, 59.4% say handmade gifts are hot, followed by Wives (48.3%), and scrapbooking (46.4%).   The 35+ crowd agrees, but turns up the heat: handmade gifts (62.1%), Wives (52.5%), scrapbooking (46.9%).  And with shows like The Swan and Extreme Makeover on TV, who wouldn’t be ready for a little nip/tuck?  37.5% of those 35+ say cosmetic surgery is hot (v. 28% for 18-34).  Finally, it looks like Dan Rather’s 60 Minutes Bush-bashing boo-boo didn’t win him too many fans…the anchorman tops the list of What’s NOT Hot for November.

    You've read the briefing, now read the book!      BIGresearch has teamed with T. Scott Gross to write When Customers Talk, a book is based on the insights of 100,000 retail customers presenting their valuable feedback on service, pricing, habits, and what they look for in a shopping experience.  When Customers Talk is available through your favorite bookstores, or you can check it out at on the web:     www.whencustomerstalk.com.

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