Although unemployment rose in March, increasingly confident consumers are holding out hope for improvement over the next six months… although more than half (51.9%) contend layoff levels will rise, this figure fell more than six points from the previous month (58.2%).  One-third (34.5%) predict layoff levels will remain the same (v. 30.8% in March), while 13.7% are holding out for a decrease, up from 11.0% last month.  Concerns with becoming laid off are also moving downward…8.1% fear the pink slip in April, compared to the 9.0% who felt the same last month.

While consumers are predicting a silver lining economically, they are remaining realistic with their finances over the next three months…decreasing overall spending is the top financial priority for April (among 36.4%, rising from 33.6% in March), while paying down debt is a close second with 35.6% (down slightly from 36.1% last month).  Additionally, more than a quarter plan to increase savings (28.2%) and/or pay with cash more often (25.2%).  With mortgage rates reaching record lows, refinancing homes is also becoming more popular…6.0% plan to refinance in the next three months, almost double the amount from a year ago (3.2%).

Recent gains on Wall Street appear to have tempted an increasing number of investors to try their luck in the stock market…in April, 43.7% of investors say they would definitely/probably invest in the stock market, rising six points from March (37.8%).  More than one in ten (11.4%) investors plan to buy stocks in the next three months, up from 9.1% in March…those planning to sell remain relatively stable from last month (3.6%) at 3.9%.

With national average gas prices continuing to float in the relatively wallet-friendly $2/gal range (source: AAA), fewer consumers (“only” 74.0%) contend their spending is impacted by prices at the pump compared to one year ago (82.2%).  However, among those affected, reducing dining out (36.7%), decreasing vacation/travel (34.9%), and trimming the clothing budget (33.0%) continue to be key areas for spending cutbacks.

With the summer driving season on the horizon, the majority of consumers (61.3%) realistically expect pump prices to increase through Mother’s Day (May 10)…one-third (35.4%) expect prices to remain the same, while only 3.2% are hoping for a decline.  Consumers predict an average price of $2.45/gal on Mom’s Day, slightly higher than the $2.39/gal anticipated at Tax Time.

 

Retail

No surprise here among frugal consumers… Women’s Clothing customers of one year or less named high prices (19.1%) as the top reason to leave their former apparel store.  Unavailable sizes (12.3%), poor selection (11.9%), inconvenient location (9.3%), and lack of newest fashions (5.4%) also contributed to their migration.

Walmart maintains a wider margin over competitors over in the Men’s section…the big discounter leads here with 14.4% shopping most often, while Kohl’s (8.6%), JC Penney (7.8%), Macy’s (4.7%), and Sears (3.0%) complete the Top 5.

Three times a charm for Walmart in Shoes this month as the discounter (with 10.8% consumer share) leads rival Payless (9.5%) for the third month in a row…Kohl’s (5.2%), DSW (3.1%), and JC Penney (3.0%) follow.

With former #3 Circuit City out of the picture in Electronics, which retailers are stepping up in the Top 5 in April?  While Best Buy (30.3%) and Walmart (18.8%) continue to lead dominate with nearly the majority of consumers, Target (2.3%), Sears (2.2%), and Amazon (1.8%) take smaller bytes out of this category.

Its ELDP edge appears to help Walmart court favor over big boxes in Sporting Goods…in April, Walmart (with 12.7% share) maintains a three point lead over second place Dick’s (9.5%), while reserve players Sports Authority (3.7%), Academy (2.4%), and Big 5 (2.0%) follow.

However when it comes to Home Improvement, it’s the big boxes who hammer the competition…almost half of shoppers head to Home Depot (26.7%) or Lowe’s (22.8%) for their Hardware needs, while Walmart (6.0%), Menards (3.2%), and ACE Hardware (2.6%) continue to trail.

In April, Walmart continues to lead – nationally – with 16.6% shopping there most often for Groceries  over Kroger (6.3%), Publix (3.5%), Safeway (2.7%), and Meijer (2.4%), but is it the same story when we take at look by region?  Walmart still dominates in the South and Midwest, but Shoprite, Stop ‘n Shop, and Safeway prove their regional might:

With almost quadruple the share of its nearest competitor, it's likely safe to say that Walmart has the long-term lock on the Health & Beauty Care category…with 29.7% shopping there most often, Walmart leads Walgreens (8.0%), CVS (7.6%), Target (5.7%), and Rite Aid (2.8%).

Druggists, though, have cornered the market for Prescription Drugs…Walgreens and CVS lead this category with 15.4% and 13.2% share, respectively, while Walmart is a not-too-distant third (10.3%).  Rite Aid (4.9%) and Target (2.1%) complete the Top 5.

While Walmart is the overall #3 in Rx Drugs, the discounter is gaining strength among its core consumer base (those earning <$50K), according to the latest Retail Ratings Report for Prescription Drugs.  Meanwhile, Walgreens appears to be weakening with this group…click here for the BIG Insights: www.bigresearch.com/big-cias-rrr-mar09-rx.pdf 

To learn more about the Retail Ratings Reports (available for 12 major categories), call 1-800-800-4462 or visit us on the web at www.BIGresearch.com.

Increasing confidence seems to have buoyed consumers’ willingness to spend over the next 90 days, according to the BIGresearch Diffusion Index (those who say they’ll spend less subtracted from those who will spend more).  With the exception of Electronics, all categories are up compared to March; however – with a nod to our troubled times – the 90 Day Outlook continues to decline from one year ago:

(Apr-09 compared to Mar-09 and Apr-08)