With the U.S. unemployment rate dipping a whopping 0.2 points to 9.7% in May (remaining 9%+ for 13 months and counting), consumers seem to be growing weary of this trend…in June, 28.6% predict there will be “more” layoffs over the next 6 months, rising from 25.9% last month, though still substantially below a year ago (43.3%). The majority (52.2%) contend that layoff levels will remain the “same,” up slightly from May (50.8%), while nearly one in five (19.2%) are optimistic about “fewer,” lowering from 23.3% last month.

Those personally concerned with becoming laid off rises slightly in June…3.9% currently fear the pink slip, up marginally from May (3.6%), but well below Jun-09 (7.6%).

Slipping confidence, combined with climbing practicality and concerns for the job market, result in consumers who are more focused on their bank accounts this month…nearly one in three (32.5%) are making paying down debt a priority this month, rising from 30.4% in May. Those planning to decrease overall spending (28.7%) rises a point from last month, while intent to increase savings (24.7%) and pay with cash more often (20.9%) rise as well.

It appears that consumers have reason to be concerned with their piggy banks…nearly two in five (38.5%) say they’ve saved 0% (yes, zero percent) of their income in the past 12 months, while 40.0% have saved 10% or less. Additionally, one-quarter (25.7%) feel they aren’t saving enough for future needs (see below). Encouragingly, one in three (31.4%) admits to saving “more” than they did last year.

Bearish investors seemed inclined toward hibernation with the DJIA dipping below 10K in the past month…this month, 45.9% of investors say they would definitely/probably gamble on Wall Street, lowering more than three points from May (49.1%) and two points from Jun-09 (48.0%).

With drivers expecting pump prices to reach $3.08/gal by Independence Day, expect bargain hunting to remain in vogue…two in five (39.2%) say they are defraying pump prices by shopping for sales more often, 36.3% are clipping coupons more often, 32.2% are purchasing more store brands/generics, while 28.0% are comparing prices in ad circulars.

With consumers continuing to head online, saving gas, time, and money, which storefronts are they surfing to most often? Nearly one in five (19.1%) shops Amazon.com most often for Non-Apparel products…Walmart.com (8.4%), eBay.com (6.9%), BestBuy.com (5.8%), and Target.com (2.2%) follow. For Apparel, Walmart.com (5.6%) tops Amazon.com (5.2%)…eBay.com (4.3%), JCPenney.com (3.9%), and Kohls.com (3.2%) complete the Top 5.

Addressing Women’s Clothing specifically for click or mortar shops, Walmart continues as the top spot shopped most often (13.5% say so), while Kohl’s continues as a strong second place competitor with 10.1%. JC Penney (6.4%), Macy’s (5.6%), and Target (2.6%) follow.

Walmart’s lead is stronger over in the Men’s section, with nearly one in five (17.8%) shopping there most often…one in ten (10.5%) heads to Kohl’s, while JC Penney (8.4%), Macy’s (4.7%), and Target (3.5%) round out the Top 5. Logically, practical consumers are most likely to be drawn to Men’s stores based on price (66.4% say so)…other motivating factors include selection (50.6%), quality (42.5%), location (38.7%), and being a trustworthy retailer (16.8%).

With Walmart already maintaining a substantial lead in the Men’s department, is the big discounter poised to continue to gain share in the long term? This month’s Consumer Migration Index (CMI) for Men’s Clothing, which tracks those who have immigrated to a store (new customers within the past year) against those who have emigrated (left within the past year) and where a positive rating spells net growth to a retailer, shows that the big W (with a +3.4 CMI, a customer conversion surplus) is continuing to build its customer base, while department stores Macy’s (-3.8 CMI) and JC Penney (-2.8 CMI) are experiencing customer deficits:

High prices (18.2%) was the top reason cited by shoppers of one year or less to switch Men’s stores…inconvenient location (9.5%), unavailability of right sizes (8.7%), poor selection (7.6%), and lack of newest fashions (4.4%) followed.

In Children’s Clothing, two discounters are the top stores shopped…again, consumers shop Walmart most often (14.5%), followed by Target (5.0%). Kohl’s (4.1%), JC Penney (2.9%), and Old Navy (1.7%) complete the Top 5.

A familiar tread – er, trend – continues in Shoes…the big discounter – Walmart (12.8%) – continues to top discount specialty shop Payless (10.6%). Kohl’s (5.4%), DSW (3.5%), and JC Penney (3.3%) follow.

However in Electronics, the top big box on the block is Best Buy, with about one in three (32.0%) shopping there most often. Walmart is second with 21.9%, while Target (3.1%), Amazon.com (3.0%), and Sears (2.1%) complete the Top 5.

Walmart bests a big box in Linens/Bedding/Draperies, though…one in five (21.0%) shops the big discounter most often in this category, while Bed Bath & Beyond (11.3%) settles for second. JC Penney (7.3%), Target (6.2%), and Kohl’s (3.7%) follow.

While traditional grocers are collectively the top shops for foodstuffs (54.8% shop these stores most often), specifically speaking, Walmart is the top choice among nearly one in five consumers (19.0%), while Kroger (6.7%), Publix (4.0%), Safeway (3.2%), and Meijer (2.3%) follow.

Walmart maintains an even wider margin over in Health & Beauty Care…about one in three (31.4%) shops the Bentonville behemoth most often for soaps, shampoos, and cosmetics, while CVS (9.3%), Walgreens (9.1%), Target (6.2%), and Rite Aid (3.3%) complete the top 5.

Druggists continue as the top shops for curing Rx-medicated ailments…Walgreens (16.0%) and CVS (15.4%) lead Walmart (11.3%) in Prescription Drugs, while Rite Aid (5.5%) and Target (2.1%) follow.

Declining confidence and increasing practicality appear to have contributed to a depressed 90 Day Outlook compared to May, according to the BIGresearch Diffusion Index (those who say they’ll spend less subtracted from those who will spend more). While most categories continue to improve from Jun-09 and Jun-08, all remain in decline compared to a pre-recession Jun-07, continuing the notion that consumer spending remains far from “recovered.”

Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook
(Jun-10 compared to May-10, Jun-09, and Jun-08)