With the national unemployment rate remaining unchanged in February (compared to Jan-10), consumer attitudes toward layoffs remains similarly frozen in March…this month, nearly one in three (30.8%) predict there will be “more” layoffs in the next six months, flat from February (30.6%), but vastly improving from a year ago (58.2%). About half (48.5%) expect layoff levels to remain the same (v. 49.4% in Feb-10), while one in five (20.8%) indicate “fewer,” up slightly from last month (20.0%).

While overall sentiment regarding layoffs remained stable from February, consumers are feeling quite a bit better about their personal job security…this month, 3.7% say they are concerned about becoming laid off, down more than a point from last month (5.0%), more than five points from Mar-09 (9.0%), and a new record low reading (previous low: 3.9% in Apr-07). The good news here for retailers is that workers with job security might feel a bit better about increasing their spending in the coming months.

With nearly half of consumers (45.3%) saying they aren’t saving enough for future needs, it should come as no surprise that intent to increase savings remains a firm 28.9%, the same level it was a year ago. With consumers feeling more confident and less practical compared to Mar-09, intent to pay down debt (34.5%), pay with cash more often (22.5%), and decrease overall spending (31.0%) have declined versus 365 days ago.

While the DJIA has nearly recovered from its end-of-January drop, investor confidence in the stock market hasn’t similarly bounced back over the past 30 days…this month, the majority of investors (51.7%) indicate they would definitely or probably hedge their bets on Wall Street, flat from February (51.5%). However, the current reading is still an improvement compared to a year ago (37.8%).

While prices at the pump have gradually risen over the past year from $1.938/gal to a current $2.776/gal (source: AAA), interestingly, consumers are less likely to have curtailed their spending as a direct result…when asked how fluctuating gas prices have impacted their spending, nearly two in five (38.5%) indicate that they are driving less, while about a third are reducing dining out (35.2%) or decreasing vacation/travel (33.4%), each lowering compared to Mar-09. With the EIA forecasting pump prices to exceed $3/gal for the upcoming spring and summer driving seasons, stay tuned to see how consumer spending attitudes change as a result.

And, with about three in five (58.5%) expecting the cost of fueling up to rise by tax time, consumers may become more reluctant to make expenditures for dining out, groceries, clothing, et al in the very near term…this month, the minority feels that pump prices will remain the same (38.5%) or decline (3.0%). The average price prediction for April 15 is $2.99/gal, slightly higher than the $2.88/gal estimated for St. Patrick’s Day.

It should come as no surprise that in this digital age, a whopping 90.8% of consumers take to the Internet to research products they are thinking about purchasing in store…just what are they surfing for? Electronics is the top category researched (by 38.4%), while one in five browses Apparel (20.3%) and Appliances (20.2%)…Shoes (17.6%), Medicines/Vitamins (15.4%), and Home Improvement (15.4%) are also hits. Google.com (24.2%), Amazon.com (12.4%), Yahoo.com (4.7%), Walmart.com (3.4%), and eBay.com (2.5%) are the top specific sites consumers search first.

When making an online purchase, Amazon.com and Walmart.com pack a 1-2 punch for shopping sites...with 5.6% shopping there most often for Apparel, Amazon.com maintains a razor-thin edge over Walmart.com (5.5%). When it comes to Non-Apparel (electronics, home décor, etc.), nearly one in five (17.9%) shops Amazon.com, double the figure for Walmart.com (8.9%). See below for the top surf sites for each category:

However, given the option to include brick-and-mortar retailers for their preference for Women’s Clothing, Walmart (12.4%) is the top shop for this apparel category, remaining relatively unchanged from a year ago. One in ten (10.7%) asserts they shop Kohl’s most often, rising from 9.2% in Mar-09, while JC Penney (7.0%), Macy’s (6.3%), and Target (2.5%) round out the Top 5.

Over in Men’s, Walmart remains king, with 15.6% shopping there most often, again flat from a year ago (15.4%)…Kohl’s is making an upward move in this category as well, with a current 10.9% share, rising from 9.6% in Mar-09. JC Penney (8.8%), Macy’s (5.8%), and Target (3.3%) complete the Top 5.

With nearly triple the share of its closest competitor in Children’s Clothing, Walmart (14.3%) clinches the apparel trifecta…Kohl’s is second with 5.0% shopping there most often, while Target (4.6%), JC Penney (3.6%), and Macy’s (1.8%) follow.

Are the Shoe Wars no more? In March, Walmart (with 12.1% share) continues as the top shop for footwear, besting Payless (10.1%) by two full points. Kohl’s (6.2%), DSW (3.8%), and JC Penney (3.6%) continue to follow not-so-closely behind.

Over in Electronics, though, Best Buy continues as the best bet for consumers…more than one in three (34.5%) shops the big box specialty store most often, 12 points ahead of nearest competitor Walmart (22.2%). The rest of the Top 5 finishes in the single digits: Target (2.8%), Amazon.com (2.7%), Sears (2.2%).

The Spring thaw generally lends itself to a few Home Improvement projects, so where might we expect DIY-ers to head for tools and supplies? One in three consumers (34.1%) shops Home Depot most often, while nearly as many head to rival Lowe’s (28.0%). Walmart (4.7%) leads Menards (4.6%) by a slim margin, while ACE (4.0%) completes the Top 5. 

With more than one in five (21.0%) shopping there most often, Walmart continues to trump big box Bed Bath & Beyond (12.8%) in Linens/Bedding/Draperies (L/B/D)…JC Penney (8.2%), Target (7.1%), and Kohl’s (4.8%) follow. Seven in ten savvy shoppers say that price (71.5%) most likely dictates why they shop a particular L/B/D store…selection (47.0%), quality (41.6%), and location (35.5%) are also major factors.

With an 8+ point lead in L/B/D Walmart isn’t likely to relinquish its top title in the near-term, but is the discount king in danger of losing customers to competitors? This month’s Consumer Migration Index (CMI) for L/B/D, which tracks those who have immigrated to a store (new customers within the past year) against those who have emigrated (left within the past year) and indicates that a positive rating spells net growth to a retailer, shows that Walmart is facing a customer deficit, with a -4.2 CMI rating. Other L/B/D retailers are facing negative CMI ratings as well (Bed Bath & Beyond, JC Penney, Linens ‘n Things, Kmart), while Target (with a +1.4 CMI rating) is the lone retailer enjoying a net customer gain:

Need a little more insight on L/B/D shoppers of one year or less? Two in five (42.1%) say they have “no preference” for the store they shop most often for L/B/D, much higher than the general population (22.4%), indicating that these consumers are willing to shop around for the best price/quality combination and thus less loyal to any particular L/B/D retailer. Additionally, shoppers of one year or less cited high prices (26.2%), inconvenient location (10.9%), poor selection (9.2%), and competitor advertising (6.6%) as top reasons to stop shopping a particular store most often.

Nationally, with one in five (19.1%) shopping there most often for foodstuffs, Walmart continues to lead traditional grocers Kroger (6.8%), Publix (3.8%), and Safeway (3.1%)…Meijer (2.4%) rounds out the Top 5. But dissect the stores shopped most often for Groceries by region, and – while Walmart still leads in three out of four regions of the country – traditional grocers are still flexing their strength on a more local level:

Nearly one in three (31.6%) shops Walmart most often for Health & Beauty Aids, cementing the discounter’s first place position over CVS (9.3%), Walgreens (9.2%), Target (6.2%), and Rite Aid (3.1%).

Though in Prescription Drugs, Walgreens (17.9%) and CVS (17.0%) maintain a solid lead over #3 Walmart (11.2%) as the top shops for Rx medications. Rite Aid (5.6%), Target and Kroger (tied, with 2.0% each) follow.

Take slightly improving sentiment toward the economy and greater confidence in personal job security, pepper in an amplified focus on practicality and necessities when purchasing, and you have a recipe for mixed results for the March 90 Day Outlook, according to the BIGresearch Diffusion Index (those who say they’ll be spending less subtracted from those who’ll spend less). Categories continue to improve compared to last month and Mar-09, and while the majority remain depressed versus Mar-08, Men’s Dress Clothing and Sporting Goods are bright spots, while Dining Out and Toys are on par with 2008 levels.

Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook
(Mar-10 compared to Feb-10, Mar-09, and Mar-08)