ForecastIQ: Young Consumers Changing
Competitive Landscape of Specialty Retailers

Aeropostale & Buckle Almost Certain to See Increase Over Next 60 Days

COLUMBUS, OH – (MARKET WIRE) – 1/19/2009 – Although retail sales continue to slump, two specialty stores are almost certain to see same store sales growth over the next two months. According to ForecastIQ (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC), forecasts bode well for both Aeropostale and Buckle. However, Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle are almost certain to see a decline.

"Analysis of consumer intentions data in the BIGresearch CIA confirms some standard expectations and offers a few surprises,” said Prof. Greg Allenby, Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University. “Many discount and wholesale stores are expected to realize increases in sales at the expense of department stores, with gains in same store sales predicted for Walmart, Sam's Club, Fred's, Family Dollar and BJ's,” said Allenby.

“Surprising, though, is the ability of several specialty stores targeting young consumers to increase same store sales during this period of economic hardship. Same store sales are expected to increase at Aeropostale, Buckle and Hot Topic, while forecasts of sales at Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle show a clear decline. The tastes of young consumers are changing the competitive landscape of specialty retailers, with clear winners and losers,” said Allenby.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ and expectations for same store sales growth/decline for the next 75 days follows:

Almost certain to see increase                       
Aeropostale                                                                  
Buckle                                                                         
Fred’s  
Walmart

Likely to see increase                                                            
BJ’s                                                                             
Children’s Place                                                
Costco
Family Dollar  
Hot Topic    
Sam’s Club

No change (flat)
Cato 
Ross

Almost certain to see decline 
Abercrombie & Fitch
American Eagle
Banana Republic           
Bonton
Chico’s
Dillard’s
Gap
Neiman Marcus
Nordstrom
Saks
Stage

Likely to see decline  
Pacific Sun
TJX

Actual forecasts for each retailer can be accessed through a 30 day free trial of ForecastIQ by visiting http://www.forecastiq.com/.

ForecastIQ was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch’s monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys. Allenby analyzed same store sales of over 37 publicly held retailers and applied Bayesian quantile analysis to the data including whether or not consumers said they plan to spend more, same or less. The results are accurate and for the first time provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75 day period. Short term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies:  Prosper Technologies develops consumer centric analytics such as ForecastIQ from consumer responses to help businesses forecast consumer demand and expenditures, budget marketing and merchandising allocations and provide retailer specific cross consumption behaviors. 

ForecastIQ is a forecast of same store sales for 37 retailers based upon future spending plans of consumers derived from BIGresearch’s monthly Consumer Intentions and Action survey (CIA).  Forecasts are 45 and 75 days forward and also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in the marketplace. For more information: http://www.goprosper.com/forecastiq-info.pdf

Contact:
Phil Rist
614-846-0146