Presidential Race Tightens in More
Ways than One,
According to Latest BIGresearch Survey
Obama Has Slight Lead in Popularity but Losing Promoters
COLUMBUS, OH – (MARKET WIRE) – 7/15/08 – In the race for the White House, Barack
Obama and John McCain are just about even, according to BIGresearch’s (http://www.bigresearch.com)
July Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) survey of over 8,000 people. The
candidates can use all the help they can get to make the move to Pennsylvania
Avenue and it appears that a greater percentage of Republicans are willing to
promote McCain than Democrats are Obama.
By using the Net Promoter® Score* (NPS), respondents were asked to rate, on a
scale from 0 (Not at all likely) to 10 (Extremely likely), the probability they
would recommend a candidate to a friend or coworker. 10 and 9 responses indicate
Promoters, 8 and 7 responses are Passives and 0 through 6 are
Detractors. NPS is calculated by subtracting the
percentage of Detractors from the percentage of Promoters.
Even though they have a long way to go, McCain is picking up promoters and Obama
is generally losing promoters. Here is a comparison of how each of the
presidential candidates rank compared to the last three months according to
their NPS among all consumers and by political party.
Obama McCain
April
May June July April May June July
All -48.8% -51.3% -42.9% -44.6% -56.0% -58.9% -53.0%
-47.6%
Democrats -13.4% -17.3% +1.6% +3.0 -82.2% -86.4% -83.0% -82.7%
Republicans -84.0% -85.0% -84.7% -87.1% -9.1% -10.0% -2.1% +11.4%
Independents-51.9% -57.0% -50.6% -53.4% -65.5% -69.9% -63.3% -58.9%
Source:
BIGresearch, April 08 CIA (N=8180), May 08 CIA (N=8347), June 08 CIA (N=8351) &
July 08 CIA (N=8361)
*Net Promoter, NPS and Net Promoter Score are trademarks of
Satmetrix Systems, Inc., Bain & Company, and Fred Reichheld
McCain’s score within
his own party has increased thirteen and a half points to a double digit number
(+11.4% v.
-2.1% in June), indicating Republicans are getting the word out about their
candidate. Obama’s score has increased only slightly within his party at about a
point and a half (+3% v. +1.6% in June), demonstrating a need to ramp up
grassroots efforts.
McCain has also gained some momentum among Independents; however, Obama’s score
still remains higher.
Regarding which candidate people would vote for if the election were held today,
it’s too close to call with Obama getting 37.8% v. McCain’s 36.8%. Independents
appear to hold the key with almost one-third (31.8%) still undecided.
If the
Presidential Election were held today, who would you vote for?
All Adults 18+ Republicans Democrats Independents
McCain 36.8% 74.7% 11.7% 29.0%
Obama 37.8% 7.8% 66.1% 33.8%
Undecided 20.7% 14.3% 18.6% 31.8%
Other 4.7% 3.2% 3.7% 5.5%
Source: BIGresearch,
July 08 CIA (N=8361)
To view data tables for presidential candidates’ NPS, please click here:
http://info.bigresearch.com/
About BIGresearch
BIGresearch is a consumer intelligence firm providing analysis of behavior in
areas of products and services, retail, financial services, automotive, and
media.
BIGresearch conducts the Consumer Intentions and Actions (CIA) Survey which
monitors more than 7,500 consumers each month. The CIA delivers fresh,
demand-based information on where the retail consumer is shopping and their
changing behavior. Unlike indicators based on past performance, this data brings
intelligence on where the retail consumer is going, their intentions and
actions. They also
conduct the Simultaneous Media Survey (SIMM) of more than 15,000 consumers twice
each year.
BIGresearch's methodology provides the most accurate consumer information in the
industry with a margin of error of +/- 1 percent.
http://www.bigresearch.com
Contact:
Chrissy Wissinger
BIGresearch
450 West Wilson Bridge Road
Suite 370
Worthington, Ohio 43085
(614) 846-0146
chrissy@bigresearch.com