ForecastIQ®: Mood Brightens; Outlook “Less Bad” for Retail Same Store Sales
Fewer Definite Declines, More Flat and One Moves to the Almost Certain Growth Column
COLUMBUS,
OH – (MARKET WIRE) – 1/26/2010 – Forecasts for same store sale growth
are inching upward for retailers from a year ago, according to the
January ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). Of the
27 retailers ForecastIQ® tracks every month, eight are likely/almost
certain to see an increase in same store sales over in February and
March (compared to seven in January ’09). More retailers are predicted
to be flat and less are forecasted declines through March, indicating
retailers aren’t necessarily as “sick,” but not yet on the road to a
full recovery.
Total Number for Retailers Tracked
JAN-2010 JAN-2009
Almost certain increase* 4 3
Likely increase 4 4
Flat
4
2
Likely
decline
4 2
Almost certain decline 11 16
*An
“almost certain increase” indicator means that in February and March,
retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from
the same period a year ago.
Ross, TJX, Aeropostale and
Buckle are almost certain to see an increase in same store sales
through March. However, both Aeropostale’s and Buckle’s projected
growth have leveled off since last year, while Ross and TJX make larger
strides. Warehouse clubs BJ’s and Costo are likely to see an increase.
On
the other hand, forecasts remain soggy for higher-priced retailers such
as Abercrombie & Fitch, Gap and Neiman Marcus; they are almost
certain to post declines. Hot Topic is almost certain to see a decline
as well, whereas a year ago they were likely to experience an increase.
For a complimentary 30-day trial of ForecastIQ®: www.forecastiq.com
A
partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations
for same store sales growth/decline through March follows:
Almost certain to see increase: Almost certain to see decline:
Aeropostale
Abercrombie
& Fitch JC Penney
Buckle
Banana Republic
Neiman Marcus
Ross
Bonton
Stage
TJX
Dillard’s
Steinmart
Gap
Hot
Topic
Likely to see increase: Likely to see decline:
BJ’s
Children’s Place
Cato’s
Saks
Costco
Wet
Seal
Fred’s
Flat:
American Eagle
Nordstrom
Old Navy
About ForecastIQ®
ForecastIQ®
was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing
over 7 years of data from BIGresearch’s monthly Consumer Intentions
& Actions (CIA) surveys based upon future spending plans of
consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers,
by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are
accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in
advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over
the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available
via enhanced consensus estimates.
About Prosper Technologies
Prosper
Technologies develops software applications that provide
consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better
forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking
consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.
Contact:
Phil Rist
614-846-0146
