March ForecastIQ®: Light At the End Of the Tunnel? Same Store Sales Outlook Up; Consumers More Bullish

Warehouse Clubs’ and Discounters’ Same Store Sales Likely to Increase, Department Stores More Likely to Decline and Surprises in the Specialty Sector

COLUMBUS, OH – (MARKET WIRE) – 3/25/2010 – For the first time in the 18 months ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC.) has been predicting same store sales, the number of those forecasted to either likely or almost certain see growth is higher than those likely to see a decline. Although consumer spending appears to be on the rebound, the uptick in the predictions so far in 2010 should be met with cautious optimism given the easy comparables from a year ago.

Total Number for Retailers Tracked  
     MAR-2010   FEB-2010   JAN-2010  
Almost certain increase*   5 4 4
Likely increase   7 84
Flat   4 0 4
Likely decline  4 9 4
Almost certain decline 7 6 11

*An “almost certain increase” indicator for March means that in April and May, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago. February indicators were for March and April and January indicators were for February and March.

Warehouse clubs (BJ’s and Costco) and retailers with a discount offering such as Ross and TJX continue to be more likely to experience growth in same store sales. Specialty retailers Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale, Children’s Place and Wet Seal are also likely to see an increase. This is the second month in a row that Abercrombie & Fitch is expecting growth after a long-term trend of negative forecasts. Similarly, Wet Seal is coming off seventeen months of predictions for decline.

On the other hand, department stores including Bonton, Dillard’s and JCPenney are almost certain to post a decline through May. Complimentary 30-day trial: www.forecastiq.com

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same store sales year-over-year growth/decline through May follows:

Almost certain to see increase:  Almost certain to see decline: 
BJ’s   Bonton 
Buckle  Dillard’s
Costco   Gap
Ross     Hot Topic
TJX JCPenney
  Stage
  Steinmart

Likely to see increase Likely to see decline:  
Abercrombie & Fitch   Cato's
Aeropostale Neiman Marcus
Children's Place Saks
Fred's  
Nordstrom  
Wet Seal  
   
Flat
American Eagle
Banana Republic
Old Navy

About ForecastIQ®
ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 8 years of data from the BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions® (CIA™) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Contact:
Phil Rist
614-846-0146