ForecastIQ™: Bumpy Road Ahead for Retailers as
Consumers Intend to Keep Wallets Shut

Value and Discount Retailers Forecast Brighter

COLUMBUS, OH – (MARKET WIRE) – 4/16/2009 – The good news is that value retailers targeting young consumers and discounters are predicted to see same store sales growth over the next 75 days (through the end of June). The bad? According to the latest ForecastIQ™ analysis (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC), the overall average for predicted same store sales growth for retailers across the board is down over last month.

According to the analysis, retailers that target teens and young adults with a value offers such as Buckle, Hot Topic and Aeropostale are forecasted to see same store sales growth in May and June. However, the outlook isn’t as rosy for Abercrombie, American Eagle and Old Navy as these retailers are almost certain to see a decline.

Further, discount-oriented retailers, including Walmart, BJs, Freds and Ross are also expected to see an increase in same store sales, while the forecast remains generally bleak for department stores.

"The effects of the recession are still with us," says Prof. Greg Allenby, Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University.  "Discounters and retailers catering to young shoppers are still doing well, but the retail landscape has generally not improved from last month.  The road to economic recovery continues to be rough."

For a complimentary 30 day trial of ForecastIQ: www.forecastiq.com  

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ and expectations for same store sales growth/decline for the next 75 days follows:

Almost certain to see increase:           Almost certain to see decline:       
Buckle                                    Abercrombie & Fitch
Family Dollar                             American Eagle
Hot Topic                                 Banana Republic
Ross                                      Bonton
Sam’s Club                                Chico’s
                                          Dillard’s
Likely to see increase:                   Gap
Aeropostale                               Neiman Marcus
BJ’s                                      Nordstrom
Fred’s                                    Pacific Sun
TJX                                       Saks
Walmart                                   Wet Seal

Flat:                                     Likely to see decline: 
Costco                                    Cato
                                          Children’s Place           

ForecastIQ was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch’s monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys. Allenby analyzed same store sales of over 37 publicly held retailers and applied Bayesian quantile analysis to the data including whether or not consumers said they plan to spend more, same or less. The results are accurate and for the first time, provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75 day period. Short term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies:  Prosper Technologies develops consumer centric analytics such as ForecastIQ from consumer responses to help businesses forecast consumer demand and expenditures, budget marketing and merchandising allocations and provide retailer specific cross consumption behaviors. 

ForecastIQ is a forecast of same store sales for 37 retailers based upon future spending plans of consumers derived from BIGresearch’s monthly Consumer Intentions and Action survey (CIA).  Forecasts are 45 and 75 days forward and also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in the marketplace.

Contact:
Phil Rist
614-846-0146