ForecastIQ®: Retail Recovery Hits Bump; Consumer Purchase Plans Dip

Future Retail Sales Softer Than in May

COLUMBUS, OH – (MARKET WIRE) – 6/4/2010 – With May consumer confidence down a point from April and retailers still feeling the effects of an early Easter, it’s not surprising that forecasts for same store sales growth for June and July are off. There is a silver lining though; outlooks remain up year-over-year, according to ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC).

Total Number for Retailers Tracked  
  MAY-2010   APR-2010   MAY-2009 
Almost certain increase*   5 8 5
Likely increase   3 10 2
Flat   4 1 0
Likely decline  7 4 5
Almost certain decline 8 4 15

*An “almost certain increase” indicator for May means that in June and July, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago.

Complimentary 30-day trial: www.forecastiq.com

When consumers pull back, outlooks for warehouse clubs and discount stores tend to improve. Indicators for June and July predict that BJ’s, Costco, Ross and TJX all are almost certain to see growth in same store sales. Alternatively, Abercrombie & Fitch, Dillard’s, JCPenney and Gap are all almost certain to post a decline. Banana Republic and Bonton are likely to see a decline in their same store sales numbers.

Interestingly, forecasts for both Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom remain strong; indicating that consumers with money to spend may be opting for higher end retailers as the economy slowly begins its recovery.

Has Buckle lost its mojo? After nineteen months of either almost certain or likely to see an increase in same store sales forecasts, the specialty retailer is likely to see a decline in June and July.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same store sales year-over-year growth/decline through July follows:

Almost certain to see increase:  Almost certain to see decline:   
BJ's Abercrombie & Fitch JCPenney
Costco     Dillard's Stage
Neiman Marcus Gap Steinmart
Ross Hot Topic Wet Seal
TJX    

Likely to see increase Likely to see decline:    
Children's Place American Eagle Buckle
Nordstrom Banana Republic Cato's
  Bonton Old Navy

Flat: 
Aeropostale
Fred's
Saks

About ForecastIQ®
ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 8 years of data from the BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions® (CIA™) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Contact:
Phil Rist
614-846-0146