ForecastIQ™: Declines Level Off but Not Much Growth for Retailers

Breaks in Clouds for Some Discounters, Department Stores May Have Bottomed Out

COLUMBUS, OH – (MARKET WIRE) – 8/21/2009 – Consumers continue to indicate they are frugal when it comes to spending and same store sales growth do not appear likely over the next 75 days for most retailers, according to the latest ForecastIQ™ analysis (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). However, retailers with a discount offering, such as Aeropostale, Ross and TJX are likely to see growth.

“In difficult economic times, shoppers decrease their spending at higher quality stores (Neiman Marcus, Saks, etc.) when they plan on spending less and increase their spending at lower quality (discount) stores such as Ross, Fred’s and TJX,” said Prof. Greg Allenby, Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University.

Retailers that you would expect to see a bump in forecasts for same store sales, given the back to school season, such as American Eagle and Abercrombie & Fitch are almost certain to see a decline and even Aeropostale and Buckle are showing slower growth than previous months. This indicates that cautious consumers intend to stretch their dollars further at discount stores, leaving a bumpy road ahead for department stores over the next 75 days.      

For a complimentary 30 day trial of ForecastIQ™: www.forecastiq.com   

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ™ and expectations
for same store sales growth/decline for the next 75 days follows:

Almost certain to see increase:    Almost certain to see decline:            
Aeropostale                        Abercrombie & Fitch      Gap
Buckle                             American Eagle           Hot Topic 
Ross                               Banana Republic          Neiman Marcus
                                   BJ’s                     Nordstrom
                                   Bonton                   Saks
                                   Costco                   Wet Seal
                                   Dillard’s                        

Likely to see increase:            Likely to see decline: 
TJX                                Children’s Place
Cato’s                             Fred’s

About ForecastIQ™: ForecastIQ™ was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch’s monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys. Allenby analyzed same store sales of over 37 publicly held retailers and applied Bayesian quantile analysis to the data including whether or not consumers said they plan to spend more, same or less. The results are accurate and for the first time, provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75 day period. Short term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies:  Prosper Technologies develops consumer centric analytics such as ForecastIQ™ from consumer responses to help businesses forecast consumer demand and expenditures, budget marketing and merchandising allocations and provide retailer specific cross consumption behaviors. 

ForecastIQ™ is a forecast of same store sales for 37 retailers based upon future spending plans of consumers derived from BIGresearch’s monthly Consumer Intentions and Action survey (CIA).  Forecasts are 45 and 75 days forward and also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in the marketplace.  

Contact:
Phil Rist
614-846-0146